What’s Driving the Wartime Stock Rebound

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What’s Driving the Wartime Stock Rebound

The S&P 500 has recouped all its losses since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28, as a bullish “vibe shift” takes hold among some investors.

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By

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Bernhard Warner

Sarah Kessler

Michael J. de la Merced

Niko Gallogly

Brian O’Keefe

Ian Mount

and

Grady McGregor

April 14, 2026,

7:46 a.m. ET

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Questions swirl about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, but that uncertainty isn’t bothering investors.

Credit...

Reuters

In today's newsletter:

Betting on momentum

A board to bring China and the U.S. closer?

“Misanthropic”

Andrew here.

Too little attention has been paid to an apparent attempt on Sam Altman’s life last week: a

Molotov cocktail-like device

that was hurled at his home in San Francisco.

Despite the

arrest of a suspect

— one who appeared to harbor an opposition to artificial intelligence and had the names and addresses of other A.I. executives — business leaders have been largely silent on the matter. That’s inexplicable, and suggests a troubling standard: that violence merits a response only when it results in injury.

Image

Betting on momentum

Bullish sentiment is powering global markets on Tuesday, as stocks recover and oil prices fall amid hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks.

That’s even as the U.S. blockades ship traffic into and out of Iranian ports, the threat of Iran-linked militants wreaking more havoc on maritime trade continues and big differences remain between Washington and Tehran over the shape of a deal.

The latest:

U.S. stock futures are up, as are shares in Europe and Asia. After closing on Monday, the S&P 500 has officially recouped all of its losses since the war began in late February.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, is trading around $98 a barrel, falling from Monday morning. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is trading at close to $97 a barrel.

The average price of gas in the U.S. is down slightly, at

$4.118 a gallon

, according to AAA.

Washington and Tehran are quietly discussing a resumption of peace talks before a two-week cease-fire is set to expire next week. Separately, several ships have been observed crossing through the Strait of Hormuz

before and after the blockade began

.

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