Foreigners dumped 22 trillion won in March as retail investors absorbed selling in a widening tug-of-war
Brent crude surges back above $103; Dow drops 363 points, clouding Seoul's outlook for Wednesday
Korea's KOSPI recovered sharply on March 24, adding 148.17 points, or 2.74%, to close at 5,553.92 — a day after a 6%-plus plunge triggered by escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges. The index burst higher at the open, touching an intraday peak of 5,643.00, before profit-taking trimmed most of the morning gains in a pattern that has defined Korea's high-volatility March.
The session's rebound, however, masked a deepening structural rift in the market. Foreigners sold a net 1.9863 trillion won on the day, extending their March net selling to 22.2570 trillion won — already exceeding the record monthly net selling of 21.0730 trillion won set just last month in February, according to Korea Exchange data. Retail investors absorbed the pressure, buying a cumulative 26.2505 trillion won since the start of the month. Analysts note that much of the foreign selling reflects profit-taking after the KOSPI's near-50% surge from year-end lows, rather than a structural exit; foreign ownership as a share of total KOSPI market cap has, in fact, edged higher in recent weeks as global fund benchmark rebalancing continues.
Wall Street erased most of Monday's relief rally on March 24, New York time. Brent crude rebounded 3.5% to $103.47 a barrel as airstrikes on Tehran resumed and Iran denied the ceasefire talks that Trump had announced on social media the day prior, which had briefly driven oil prices down more than 10%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, giving back nearly half of its prior session's gain, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 363 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%. With thousands of U.S. Marines deploying to the Gulf and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz still a live risk, traders treated Monday's surge as a one-day relief trade.
Domestic brokerages urged caution, pointing to the lopsided macro exposure Korea faces. Mirae Asset Securities warned that "Middle East escalation feeds directly into won weakness, which in turn burdens foreign inflows," adding that Korea's reliance on the region for roughly 60% of its energy imports means a prolonged conflict could push up both the trade deficit and domestic inflation simultaneously. The broader volatility backdrop remains extraordinary: March has seen six circuit-breaker suspensions and two full trading halts, with the KOSPI volatility index briefly spiking to 62.9 — a six-year high.
For March 25 trading in Seoul, strategists broadly expect the KOSPI to test support near the 5,500 level as investors weigh overnight U.S. losses, Brent crude's move back above the triple-digit threshold, and any fresh Middle East headlines. Medium-term bulls continue to point to upward revisions in 12-month forward earnings estimates and improving semiconductor cycle fundamentals as reasons not to panic-sell. The consensus tactical advice remains to reduce broad index exposure and rotate into sectors with clear earnings visibility — AI infrastructure, defense, and select semiconductors — rather than chasing Tuesday's bounce across the board.
By Min Byung-kwun, KDFN
kdf＠kdfnews.com
댓글
0