Markets Bet Big on a Quick End to the Iran War

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Markets Bet Big on a Quick End to the Iran War

Global markets rallied as President Trump signaled that the United States may stop fighting soon. But big questions remain about lingering damage.

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By

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Bernhard Warner

Sarah Kessler

Michael J. de la Merced

Niko Gallogly

Brian O’Keefe

and

Grady McGregor

April 1, 2026,

7:53 a.m. ET

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In today's newsletter:

Two to three weeks?

The war’s effect on aviation

Apple and the trillion-dollar computer

Your thoughts on stock trading by elected officials

Andrew here.

I only got the chance to speak with Steve Jobs twice during his lifetime. This morning, on Apple’s 50th anniversary, I’m thinking of him.

Apple’s success was never preordained. Remember that the company nearly went bankrupt in the 1990s, before Jobs returned after a decade-long exile. But while we tend to celebrate founders — especially those like Jobs with powerful visions and intensity — the most underappreciated business story of the past decade may be what Tim Cook did to grow Apple’s business so successfully after Jobs’s death in 2011.

Two to three weeks?

Markets are largely breathing a sigh of relief this morning, as investors took hope that President Trump was preparing to

wind down U.S. strikes on Iran

within — by his estimation — “

two weeks, maybe three

.”

But political and business leaders around the world continue to worry that the long-term consequences of the fighting and a potentially sudden end to U.S. operations may last a lot longer.

Cautious optimism is dominating the markets.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, briefly fell below $100 a barrel this morning, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were both in the green and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes was down, too.

Still, both Brent and the 10-year are ticking up from session lows.

Trump signaled that he wanted to wrap up the fighting.

“We will be leaving very soon,” he told reporters on Tuesday, and the administration said he would address the nation tonight. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also suggested that Washington was close to achieving a key goal: preventing Tehran from being able to build a nuclear weapon. “We can

see the finish line

,” Rubio said on Fox News.

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