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Iran War’s Latest Economic Toll: Oil at $115 a Barrel
Economists and investors are increasingly pricing in a slowdown, or even a global recession, if the fighting drags on.
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By
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Bernhard Warner
Sarah Kessler
Michael J. de la Merced
Niko Gallogly
Brian O’Keefe
Lauren Hirsch
and
Christine Zhang
March 30, 2026,
7:38 a.m. ET
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More mixed messages from President Trump about war in the Middle East have markets and economists on edge.
Credit...
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
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Andrew here.
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putting boots on the ground
. Anxiety is also up about private credit amid a new report that firms are more exposed to slumping software companies than previously disclosed.
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Oil climbs amid the fog of war
Energy prices are surging again as the war in the Middle East enters a second month, with no apparent end in sight.
Market pros are issuing increasingly pessimistic forecasts. That comes as President Trump sends mixed messages about possible negotiations to end the fighting, particularly as the U.S. sends more troops to the region.
The latest:
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil,
topped $115 a barrel
on Monday. It is up roughly 60 percent since the war began on Feb. 28, a surge that some oil majors,
including TotalEnergies
, have turned into bumper profits.
The average price of gasoline in the U.S.
hit $3.99
a gallon on Monday. Experts warn that elevated fuel prices could force Americans to
rethink their summer travel plans
.
S&P 500 futures are up slightly on Monday. But the benchmark index is
down nearly 9 percent
from its January high, while the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory last week.
The availability of key industrial materials is getting shakier. The price of aluminum, a key component of auto parts, furniture, windows and more,
hit a four-year high on Monday
, Reuters reported, after Iranian attacks this weekend on two Middle East production sites. And manufacturers are worried about
supplies of helium
, which is used in chip-making and M.R.I. machines.
Investors are bracing for a lengthy war.
Trump told journalists on Sunday that a deal
could come “soon
.” But he also told The Financial Times that he would like to “
take the oil in Iran
,” musing about seizing Kharg island, Iran’s key export hub. Adding more confusion, Trump said Iran had agreed to
allow 20 oil cargo ships
to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but it was unclear where they might be headed.
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