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Trump’s erratic course and the burden of alliance

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted...

Trump’s erratic course and the burden of alliance

Lee Ha-kyung

The author is a senior columnist at the JoongAng Ilbo.

When Japan launched the Pearl Harbor attack on Dec. 7, 1941, in response to U.S. oil embargoes, the United States entered World War II. Though angered by what it saw as a betrayal during the ongoing diplomacy, Washington rebuilt Japan as an ally following the war.

Unlike today, the United States appeared guided by strategic restraint and rational calculation at the time. As the under secretary of state, Joseph Grew — a veteran diplomat who had served as the ambassador to Japan for nine years from 1932 — played a central role in Japan’s rebuilding.

In this black-and-white file photo from July 19, 1950, troops of the First U.S. Cavalry Division land ashore at Pohang on the east coast of Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War. [AP/YONHAP]

Grew was detained at the embassy after the Pearl Harbor attack and repatriated nine months later. Hard-liners in Washington argued for executing the Japanese emperor, but Grew opposed dismantling the imperial system, warning that it would provoke resistance from the Japanese public. Instead, he advanced a strategy of turning Japan into a cooperative democratic state to contain the spread of communism in Asia. In the decades that followed, Japan went from a defeated enemy to what former U.S. ambassador Mike Mansfield later described as “the most important bilateral relationship in the world.”

By contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump has declared that he would “return Iran to the stone age.” The remark implies a willingness to inflict suffering even on civilians. The likely consequence is that the nearly 95 million descendants of the Persian civilization would retain deep hostility toward the United States long after the war ends. Trump’s rhetoric has raised concerns that U.S. statecraft is losing the restraint that once defined it.

Korean and U.S. troops take part in a combined river crossing drill in Yeoju, Gyeonggi, on Aug. 27, 2025. [YONHAP]

A similar test of alliance leadership came during the 1956 Suez Crisis. After Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal, Britain and France attacked, joined by Israel. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser responded by sinking dozens of ships to block the canal and cut off Europe’s vital route to Persian Gulf oil. Energy prices surged, sending shockwaves through the global economy.

The United States, angered that its allies had launched the operation without consultation, threatened to sell off its pound reserves and refused to provide financial assistance. Burdened with heavy debt, Britain faced economic collapse and was forced to withdraw under pressure from the United Nations. The episode, often called the “Suez moment,” marked the effective end of British imperial power. The shock of what might be termed a “Hormuz moment” triggered by Trump could prove even greater.

A striking paradox has resulted from the war with Iran. U.S. allies are unsettled, while adversaries appear to benefit from the conflict. Gulf allies hosting U.S. troops have come under Iranian attack. NATO declined Trump’s request for deployments to the Strait of Hormuz, citing the absence of prior consultation. When several countries denied overflight access, Trump responded by warning that he was seriously considering withdrawing from NATO.

The alliance system that has underpinned U.S. leadership since World War II is showing signs of strain. Meanwhile, Iran is profiting from the crisis. If planned transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz are fully realized, it could generate around $100 billion annually, equivalent to roughly 20 to 30 percent of its GDP. Some transactions are reportedly being settled in Chinese yuan rather than dollars, raising concerns about cracks in the petrodollar system that has supported dollar hegemony. Russia is also benefiting from higher oil prices, with projected annual gains exceeding $80 billion.

Security concerns extend to Asia, where the fate of the Korean Peninsula is closely tied to that of Taiwan. When North Korea invaded the South on June 25, 1950, U.S. President Harry Truman responded within days by deploying naval and air forces to South Korea and positioning the Seventh Fleet in the Taiwan Strait. Coordination across theaters was immediate and decisive.

If China were to move against Taiwan, it is widely assumed that North Korea would follow with provocations of its own. But the Iran war has reportedly depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles in Asia, including significant portions of Tomahawk missiles and missile defense interceptors. The Financial Times has reported serious concern in Taiwan, while South Korea has remained relatively subdued.

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, makes remarks as he stands with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a dinner in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington on March 19. Earlier in the day, Trump and Takeuchi exchanged views on Iran, energy and issues in the Indo-Pacific region. [UPI/YONHAP]

The conflict also poses challenges for the South Korea-U.S. alliance. Trump singled out South Korea, saying it had not been helpful despite hosting tens of thousands of U.S. troops near a nuclear-armed adversary. Japan, by contrast, has maintained close engagement with Washington, including new investment commitments, while avoiding direct military involvement in Hormuz operations. South Korea passed a special investment measure only after facing U.S. criticism.

During the 1950-53 Korean War, the United States deployed a cumulative 1.789 million troops, with 36,574 killed and more than 100,000 wounded. South Korea is now a leading economic and military power. Trump’s decisions may appear erratic, and coordination with other middle powers is necessary to safeguard national interests. Even so, the alliance with the United States remains foundational. South Korea cannot stand aside when its ally faces difficulty. It must seek a careful strategic balance and make decisive choices.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.

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