Concerns are rising over a so-called “even-year jinx” surrounding Samsung Electronics’ smartphone business, as the newly released Galaxy S26 faces a critical test. The device is showing signs of slowing sales amid rising memory chip prices—often referred to as “chipflation.”
Industry observers note that the company’s Mobile eXperience (MX) division has posted weaker performance in every even-numbered year in recent times, leading some to question whether this is more than mere coincidence.
MX division profits dip in even-numbered years
According to industry sources on April 14, this pattern is evident in Samsung’s financial results. Since restructuring its IT & Mobile (IM) division into the MX division in 2021, the company has consistently seen weaker performance in even-numbered years.
Operating profit for the MX division fell from 11.4 trillion won in 2022 to 10.6 trillion won in 2024, after rising to 13 trillion won in 2023. In 2025, profit rebounded to around 14 trillion won, up about 16% year-on-year, surpassing the previous peak in 2023.
As a result, profits have improved in odd-numbered years while declining in even-numbered ones. Some online communities have even joked that consumers should wait for odd-numbered years to buy new devices. However, analysts suggest this pattern reflects broader internal and external conditions rather than a simple superstition.
Challenges hit even-numbered Galaxy models
Product-specific issues have also emerged in even-numbered years. The Galaxy S20, released in 2020, suffered from weakened global demand due to COVID-19 and a high pricing strategy. The Galaxy S22 in 2022 faced controversy over performance throttling (GOS) and overheating issues, damaging consumer trust. The Galaxy S24 also drew criticism for failing to sufficiently stimulate upgrade demand despite emphasizing AI features.
This year, the company faces renewed pressure from rising costs. Increasing memory chip prices have driven up smartphone production costs, creating additional pressure to raise retail prices—further dampening demand.
Market research firm IDC forecasts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 12% this year due to rising memory prices.
Galaxy S26 faces tough market conditions
The recently launched Galaxy S26 is facing similar headwinds. While pre-orders—opened on March 11—were strong, actual sales performance has reportedly fallen short of expectations as higher costs and weakening demand weigh on the market.
The broader environment remains challenging. With global smartphone shipments expected to decline by double digits, even premium devices are struggling to maintain demand. Mobile carriers are responding with aggressive promotions, including subsidies and near “half-price” discounts, while Samsung is ramping up marketing efforts to boost visibility shortly after launch.
Not a jinx, but external factors
Industry experts caution against attributing the trend to a “jinx.” Instead, they point to a convergence of external factors—such as the pandemic, interest rate hikes, rising component costs, and technological transitions—that have disproportionately impacted even-numbered years.
“Rather than a pattern of poor performance in even-numbered years, it’s more accurate to say that unfavorable market conditions coincided during those periods,” said one industry official. “Still, the repeated pattern is influencing both investor and consumer perception.”
Ultimately, the key question is whether Samsung can break this cycle with the Galaxy S26. If performance weakens through the second quarter, the narrative of an “even-year curse” may become more entrenched.
A report by Heungkuk Securities analyst Sohn In-jun warned, “A slowdown in the mobile market due to surging memory prices in the second half appears inevitable,” adding that rising costs could push annual operating margins down to around 2%.
댓글
0