'Subnautica 2', whose release was uncertain due to legal disputes among executives, is being launched in Early Access. With the release of a game that held the number one spot on Steam's wishlist for 34 consecutive weeks, Krafton is being evaluated as having seized an opportunity to reduce its dependence on Battlegrounds. Securities firms have projected sales of over 5 million copies within the second quarter alone. However, ongoing conflicts with Unknown Worlds remain a variable, making it difficult to be optimistic.
Subnautica 2. / Krafton
According to the industry on the 7th, Krafton's overseas subsidiary Unknown Worlds will release 'Subnautica 2' in Early Access on May 15 on global platforms including Steam and Xbox Game Pass.
Subnautica 2 is the third title in the Subnautica series and is considered the official numbered sequel. It also marks the first release in 12 years since the previous game. The oceanic survival experience, which was the strength of the previous title, has been elevated to the next level, and for the first time in the series, 4-player cooperative play has been introduced. Graphics quality has also been enhanced through the application of Unreal Engine 5.
Lee Jin-hyung, head of Krafton's publishing division, said, "The oceanic survival experience of the Subnautica series has been expanded further in the new game through cooperative mode and a new alien planet," adding, "We expect it to approach users who have loved the series in a fresh way."
Expectations are equally high. Gamers expressed increased interest after the trailer was released, commenting on "a deeper and more spectacular alien ocean." Underwater base construction and various interactions with marine life are also receiving positive reviews. Unknown Worlds plans to improve the game's completeness through an Early Access period of approximately two years before the official release.
The market evaluates Subnautica 2 as a key title that will mitigate Krafton's 'single IP risk' and a game with box office potential. It confirmed a high level of waiting demand by maintaining the number one spot on Steam's wishlist for 34 consecutive weeks. Securities firms estimated that Subnautica 2 will achieve sales of over 5 million copies within the second quarter alone. Based on the package price (33,700 won), a simple calculation suggests new revenue expectations of over 160 billion won.
The problem is legal risk. A U.S. court ruled that the dismissal of executives at Unknown Worlds, the developer of Subnautica, was unjust. Krafton lost in the first trial. According to the court's decision, Unknown Worlds CEO Ted Gill was reinstated, and service authority was transferred to Unknown Worlds, not Krafton. This means Krafton's room to intervene in operations or development roadmaps is limited.
Conflicts between the two parties over damages and performance bonuses have also not been completely resolved. This issue is cited as a variable that could affect future development roadmaps and organizational stability.
Additionally, questions are being raised about Krafton's operational capabilities. Currently, over 95% of Krafton's revenue comes from the PUBG series. This makes the success of new titles all the more critical. Previously, Krafton achieved sales of over 1 million copies in the initial release period for Early Access titles such as 'Mimesis' and 'inZOI', but later showed limitations as sales and user numbers declined.
An industry insider said, "Subnautica 2's initial box office indicators look solid, but how internal conflicts are resolved could affect its success," adding, "During the Early Access period, success potential may vary depending on the ability to communicate with users."
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