What’s happening at the Federal Reserve today.

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April 29, 2026, 9:12 a.m. ET

Live Updates: Senate Committee Votes on New Fed Chair Before Powell’s Last Meeting

Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve is expected to clear the Senate Banking Committee, ahead of the central bank’s latest interest rate decision.

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This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be the last with Jerome H. Powell serving as chair. His term as chair ends next month.

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Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

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April 29, 2026, 9:05 a.m. ET

Colby Smith

Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve.

What’s happening at the Federal Reserve today.

The Federal Reserve’s current and future leaders are making consequential appearances in Washington today.

Here’s what to know:

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Kevin M. Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome H. Powell as Fed chair, for a vote in the full chamber.

Later in the day, Fed leaders will conclude two days of discussions on the economy and where to set interest rates. They are expected to keep rates steady in a range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent.

Mr. Powell will hold what is expected to be his last news conference as Fed chair before his term as chair ends on May 15. He is likely to answer questions about the economic damage of the war in Iran, as well as whether he might stay on at the Fed as governor to see through a term that ends in 2028.

Mr. Powell’s news conference will also provide insight into debates among Fed officials about the outlook for rates. The war has pushed up energy prices and inflationary pressures, which puts upward pressure on rates. But the job market has settled in low gear, which could spur lower rates, complicating the bank’s policy plans.

April 29, 2026, 9:12 a.m. ET

Tony Romm

The vote is likely to be without much drama, now that the Trump administration has dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the current Fed chair. Absent that, Republicans would have lost the must-have support of one of their own, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Despite the senator’s support for Warsh, he withheld his vote for weeks in order to force federal prosecutors to drop their inquiry, which Tillis saw as politically motivated.

April 29, 2026, 9:10 a.m. ET

Tony Romm

Senate lawmakers will take a key step today toward confirming Kevin M. Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote this morning on Warsh, a move that would tee up his nomination for the full chamber to consider soon.

April 29, 2026, 5:03 a.m. ET

Colby Smith

Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve.

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s April Meeting

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Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair.

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Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

The Federal Reserve is preparing to

hold interest rates steady

on Wednesday for its third straight meeting this year — and likely the final one for Jerome H. Powell as chair.

Since policymakers last gathered in March, the war in Iran has continued to

drag on

, compounding the potential economic damage. Inflation has already

risen sharply

, reflecting an ongoing surge in energy prices. The labor market has

stabilized somewhat

, but Americans are feeling increasingly downbeat about the outlook for growth.

The combination of higher inflation and slower growth is particularly challenging for the Fed, and has prompted policymakers to endorse holding interest rates steady in a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent for an extended period.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release a new policy statement alongside its rate decision at 2 p.m. in Washington. Mr. Powell, whose term ends May 15, will hold what is likely to be his final news conference as chair at 2:30 p.m. Pressure is now on the Senate to confirm President Trump’s pick to replace him, Kevin M. Warsh, in time. Mr. Warsh is expected to take the first step toward winning confirmation on Wednesday, just hours ahead of the Fed meeting.

Here is what to watch for:

Impact of the War

When officials last gathered in March, the United States was less than three weeks into its war with Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for global energy markets, had begun to gum up supply chains and lift energy prices, but the full extent of the economic impact was impossible to know.

Mr. Powell, at the time,

leaned into the uncertainty

of the moment, saying repeatedly that officials had “no conviction” in their forecasts when it was still so unclear how long the war would last and, in turn, how long energy prices would stay elevated.

“The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” he told reporters.

Six weeks later, officials are facing the possibility of a much more protracted war, which risks keeping energy prices elevated.

The longer that price pressures linger, the more likely they broaden to other areas, like the services sector, and begin to push up inflation in a more sustained way. There is also a concern that at some point consumers will be forced to pull back on other spending in order to cover higher energy-related expenses, which would undermine a key pillar that is propping up the economy.

Mr. Powell will likely be under pressure to provide more specificity around the Fed’s views on the economic outlook, and how it is thinking through scenarios related to an prolonged conflict.

Rate Increases on the Table?

Until the war with Iran, the primary debate at the Fed centered around when — not whether — officials would restart rate cuts.

But the emergence of another inflation shock has begun to change the nature of the Fed’s internal discussions.

No official yet sees a rate increase as the most probable outcome this year, as Mr. Powell made clear during March’s news conference.

“We are balancing these two goals in a situation where the risks to the labor market are to the downside — which would call for lower rates — and the risks to inflation are to the upside — which would call for higher rates, or not cutting, anyway,” he said at the time.

Minutes from that meeting

, however, showed an increasing number of officials supporting the idea of keeping rate increases on the table, or at the very least communicating that there were roughly equal odds that the next move could be up rather than down.

Mr. Powell will no doubt face questions about where officials now stand on the matter. Economists will also be looking out for changes to language in the Fed’s policy statement, which currently indicates the conditions under which the central bank would consider the “extent and timing of additional adjustments” to rates. An amendment to that line would send a strong signal that the Fed’s thinking around its next steps has shifted.

When Will Powell Leave?

If all goes according to plan and the Senate confirms Mr. Warsh by May 15, Mr. Powell’s tenure as Fed chair will end. But his time at the central bank may not be over. Technically, he can stay on as a governor until January 2028.

Mr. Powell’s decision hinges first and foremost on the outcome of a

criminal investigation

by the Justice Department into cost overruns for renovations at the central bank’s headquarters in Washington and whether he lied to Congress about them.

The investigation prompted a rare public rebuke from Mr. Powell, who said it was nothing more than a coercive tool to get the Fed to comply with the president’s demands for lower rates. Mr. Powell also made clear he would not leave the Fed until the investigation was “well and truly over, with transparency and finality.” Ultimately, he said he would base his decision on what is “best for the institution and for the people we serve.”

The investigation, which was stymied by a federal judge, also angered Senate Republicans, including Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who vowed to block any of Mr. Trump’s Fed nominees until Mr. Powell’s legal threats ended.

On Friday, the Justice Department

announced

it would drop the investigation and refer the matter to the Fed’s internal watchdog.

The Justice Department’s move was sufficient for Mr. Tillis to

lift his block

and allow Mr. Warsh’s nomination to proceed. Lawmakers are set to hold a vote on Wednesday morning to advance the nomination to the full Senate.

But it is unclear whether the Justice Department’s de-escalation will give Mr. Powell enough closure to leave. Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said she would “not hesitate” to reopen the investigation again if needed.

Mr. Tillis also suggested the Justice Department might still appeal the federal judge’s ruling that quashed the subpoenas against the Fed. He said such a move would be not about pursuing Mr. Powell but about defending the power of prosecutors to issue subpoenas. An appeal would only further encourage Mr. Powell to stay.

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April 28, 2026, 5:04 a.m. ET

Colby Smith

Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve.

Despite Trump’s demands, his Fed pick is unlikely to get a quick rate cut.

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It is unclear whether Jerome H. Powell will leave the Federal Reserve once his successor as chair is confirmed. His term as governor runs until early 2028.

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Todd Heisler/The New York Times

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is set to be Jerome H. Powell’s last as chair of the central bank. But the “wait and see” policy path that he carefully carved out amid

resurgent inflation risks

is likely to stay intact long after he leaves the top job.

On Wednesday morning, President Trump’s handpicked successor, Kevin M. Warsh, is expected to take a significant step toward becoming the next Fed chair when Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee clear him for a full Senate vote. Hours later, the Fed will announce its latest rate decision, followed by what looks poised to be Mr. Powell’s final news conference as chair.

New leadership at the Fed will not automatically usher in a sea change in the outlook for interest rates, however. Since December, officials have kept them in a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, much to Mr. Trump’s chagrin. The president wants substantially lower borrowing costs and has made it clear that he expects Mr. Warsh to deliver them.

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Kevin M. Warsh, President Trump’s pick to lead the Fed, is expected to take a big step toward confirmation this week.

Credit...

Kenny Holston/The New York Times

But Fed policymakers project no urgency to restart rate cuts, and Mr. Warsh has said he did not promise Mr. Trump to ease policy in order to get the job, even as Senate Democrats have

questioned

whether he would serve as the president’s “sock puppet.” On Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady again. In fact, traders in financial markets that track the trajectory of rates predict no pivot toward cuts at all this year.

“The path to cutting is one that is much more fraught now than it seemed a few months ago,” said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at Citi and a former official at the Treasury Department.

The Fed’s caution around rate cuts crystallized in the wake of the war with Iran, which is pushing inflation further from the central bank’s 2 percent target while raising the specter of slower economic growth.

A roughly 50 percent jump in oil prices since the start of the war on Feb. 28 has

rippled across the economy

, lifting gasoline costs, airfares and shipping fees. Soaring fertilizer prices have prompted concerns about rising grocery bills, which would add yet another expense for Americans who have faced higher prices in the last year because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The latest Consumer Price Index report

showed

that annual inflation was 3.3 percent in March, almost a full percentage point higher than the pace in February.

The longer energy prices remain elevated, “the greater the chances that higher inflation gets embedded across a wide variety of goods and services, various supply chain effects start to emerge, and real activity and employment start to slow,” Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor who was in the running to replace Mr. Powell, said in a speech this month.

Just a handful of months ago, Mr. Waller was so worried about the labor market that he voted for a quarter-point rate cut in January. Monthly jobs growth has started to

pick back up again

, and the unemployment rate has steadied around 4.3 percent, indicating a more stable situation.

Against this backdrop, even some of Mr. Trump’s biggest supporters have changed their tune about rate reductions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this month that the Fed should “wait and see” before lowering borrowing costs. Stephen I. Miran, who consistently called for aggressive rate cuts after Mr. Trump appointed him as a Fed governor last year, has endorsed a slower pace of reductions in light of what he described as “a little bit less favorable” inflation dynamics.

“Energy developments have changed the distribution of risks,” he said in public remarks recently. “They’ve increased the risks of ​higher inflation.”

For Jon Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a former senior adviser to Mr. Powell, those comments suggest that “everyone but Trump is resigned, no matter who’s chair, to a sustained hold until things clarify some.”

Support for cuts is unlikely to grow unless the labor market takes a turn and starts to deteriorate more notably. Policymakers will also want to have tangible evidence that inflation from both the war and last year’s tariffs has subsided. Some officials seem willing to acknowledge that the Fed is

equally likely

to have to consider rate increases, although no one yet thinks that is the most probable outcome.

As chair, Mr. Warsh would have sway over the rate debate but not final say. Decisions are made by a 12-person committee, which also includes the six other members of the board of governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a rotating set of four presidents from the 12 regional banks.

Among those who could still get a vote is Mr. Powell.

Just days before the Fed’s policy meeting was set to begin on Tuesday, it was not entirely clear if he would step down as chair when his term ended on May 15. A criminal investigation into Mr. Powell and the central bank had held up Senate confirmation of Mr. Warsh. Mr. Powell had pledged to remain chair temporarily if Mr. Warsh was not confirmed in time.

But on Friday, the

ground shifted

. In an about-face, the Justice Department dropped its inquiry into renovations at the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, but kept open the possibility of restarting it at any point. By Sunday, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a pivotal Republican on the Banking Committee, said federal prosecutors had given him

sufficient assurances

that Mr. Powell’s legal threats were over.

Mr. Powell still faces a

high-stakes

decision on whether to stay on as a governor, which he can do until January 2028. That would prevent Mr. Trump from filling the seat with someone more amenable to his wishes to lower rates and gain more control over the central bank.

Mr. Powell has said he would not leave the board until the criminal investigation was “well and truly over, with transparency and finality.” He added that his decision would depend on what he thought was “best for the institution and for the people we serve.”

Mr. Tillis suggested on Sunday that the Justice Department might still appeal a federal judge’s ruling that quashed the subpoenas against the Fed. He said such a move would be not about pursuing Mr. Powell but about defending the power of prosecutors to issue subpoenas. An appeal, however, is likely to encourage Mr. Powell to stay.

That could make for an awkward transition period for Mr. Warsh, who wants to pursue sweeping changes to the way the Fed operates, including the data it favors to make rate decisions, how it communicates any policy pivots and its

footprint in financial markets

.

Mr. Warsh’s ability to enact these changes would require broad internal support, something he would have to build while also managing Mr. Trump’s ire if he did not pursue the policy that the president wanted.

“I don’t think he gets much of a honeymoon period,” Mr. Faust said. “He’ll be in the firing line Day 1.”

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April 26, 2026, 9:45 a.m. ET

Tony Romm

and

Colby Smith

A key G.O.P. senator says he won’t block Trump’s nominee for Fed chair.

Image

Senator Thom Tillis in the Capitol this month.

Credit...

Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

The Senate is set to proceed with Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, after a pivotal Republican lawmaker, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, said on Sunday that he was prepared to lift his blockade and lend his support toward confirmation.

For weeks, Mr. Tillis refused to advance Mr. Warsh or any other Fed nominee while the Trump administration investigated the current chair, Jerome H. Powell, in an inquiry that many have described as politically motivated.

But Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said on Friday that the Justice Department would drop the matter, which focused on cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. Even though Ms. Pirro said that she would “not hesitate” to reopen the criminal investigation, her move to stand aside still proved sufficient for Mr. Tillis, who said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he was ready to move forward with a key, first committee vote on Mr. Warsh.

“They have made it very clear that the current investigation is completely and fully ended,” Mr. Tillis said of his conversations with the Justice Department.

The senator said those discussions gave him the assurances he needed “to feel like they were not using the D.O.J. as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed.”

Mr. Tillis’s vote is pivotal in determining whether Mr. Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, will be confirmed by the time Mr. Powell’s term officially ends on May 15. While Mr. Warsh enjoys broad Republican support, Senate Democrats have

called him a “sock puppet,

” given President Trump’s insistence that he would pick only someone who supported lower rates to replace Mr. Powell.

Republicans hold a slim 13-to-11 majority on the Banking Committee, which oversees the Fed, meaning Mr. Tillis’s opposition had created an insurmountable deadlock there. Lawmakers are set to hold a vote on Wednesday to advance Mr. Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate.

If confirmed, Mr. Warsh, will assume leadership of an institution that has had to defend its ability to operate independently amid an extensive pressure campaign from White House for lower interest rates.

The criminal investigation into Mr. Powell and the Fed was the latest broadside from the administration, coming on the heels of an attempt by Mr. Trump to oust Lisa D. Cook, a sitting governor, last year. That case is currently before the Supreme Court.

Mr. Trump has also threatened to fire Mr. Powell if he decides to stay on at the central bank after his term as chair ends in May. He can stay on as a governor until 2028.

Mr. Powell has yet to disclose whether he will do so but has stipulated that he will only leave once the investigation into him and the Fed is “well and truly over, with transparency and finality.”

He is likely to face questions about his future this week at a news conference after the Fed’s next policy meeting, at which officials are expected to hold rates steady as they grapple with an ongoing energy shock from the war in Iran.

In her statement Friday, Ms. Pirro said that the investigation into Mr. Powell would instead be handled by the inspector g