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Investors Brace for a New Hormuz Blockade Threat

President Trump’s plan to bar ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports has put markets on edge and added to global economic uncertainty. Andrew here. Why was there a huge disconnect between...

NYTIMES 입력 2026.04.13 20:54 0

Investors Brace for a New Hormuz Blockade Threat

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Investors Brace for a New Hormuz Blockade Threat

President Trump’s plan to bar ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports has put markets on edge and added to global economic uncertainty.

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Andrew Ross Sorkin

Bernhard Warner

Sarah Kessler

Michael J. de la Merced

Niko Gallogly

and

Brian O’Keefe

April 13, 2026,

7:53 a.m. ET

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President Trump’s blockade threat has jolted global markets again.

Credit...

Asif Hassan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

In today's newsletter:

The price of a Hormuz blockade

An earnings season on edge

“Everyone’s talking about oil, but I think what the world is mainly short of is tokens.”

Boom times for cybersecurity A.I.

Andrew here.

Why was there a huge disconnect between equity investors, who spent the past week chasing cease-fire headlines, and oil traders, who remained cynical (as did many geopolitical experts)? Now we know who was right: the oil traders, as the talks ended without a deal. We’ve got the implications of all of this below.

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The price of a Hormuz blockade

Investors and business leaders who had hoped for some stability in the Middle East are out of luck. Washington is threatening to blockade some traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, drawing promises of retaliation from Tehran.

It’s the latest sign that the weekslong war is far from being resolved and poses significant economic risks to the global economy.

The latest:

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, has surpassed $102 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is above $104.

The average gas price in the U.S. is about

$4.125 a gallon

, according to AAA.

U.S. stock futures are down slightly, as are European and Asian markets. The yield for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is up slightly, above 4.34 percent.

The strait remains the thing to watch.

U.S. Central Command said that the military would block ships

from entering or leaving Iranian ports

and coastal areas starting at 10 a.m. Eastern. American forces won’t impede other traffic through the strait, a critical waterway for much of the world’s oil and gas shipments, CENTCOM added.

That threat, seemingly intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table, appears to be less restrictive than the “complete blockade” that President Trump had mentioned on Sunday. But it’s also a significant change from last month, when the U.S. said Iranian tankers would be allowed through the strait to cushion any shock to global energy markets.

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