How the Iran War Is Costing the Economy Its Buffers

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How the Iran War Is Costing the Economy Its Buffers

As the U.S.-Israeli campaign enters a second month, analysts see a growing toll. One forecast predicts oil hitting $200 a barrel.

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By

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Bernhard Warner

Sarah Kessler

Michael J. de la Merced

Niko Gallogly

Brian O’Keefe

and

Ian Mount

March 27, 2026,

7:09 a.m. ET

Image

Image

War in the Middle East has roiled markets and ignited fears of global economic damage.

Credit...

Jeenah Moon/Reuters

In today's newsletter:

Taking stock

Anthropic takes Round 1

Google jolts the chip market

Talking A.I. with the C.E.O. of Antithesis

Andrew here.

For those who think that the Trump administration’s designation of Anthropic as a security risk was another effort to coerce private companies to bend to its will, a federal judge agrees with you. In temporarily blocking the government’s Anthropic move, Judge Rita Lin in San Francisco wrote: “Nothing in the governing statute supports the Orwellian notion that an American company may be branded a potential adversary and saboteur of the U.S. for expressing disagreement with the government.”

Corporate leaders may want to take note. The judicial system — all the way up to the Supreme Court — has frequently pushed back against the administration’s most aggressive tactics against businesses. Lin’s ruling might also persuade the Pentagon and Anthropic to return to the negotiating table. More below.

Taking stock

Wall Street is still struggling to gauge the fallout of the Middle East war nearly one month into the conflict.

Fresh off one of the stock market’s

worst trading days of the year

, oil prices are rising again on Friday, with analysts at Macquarie warning that Brent crude, the global benchmark,

could reach $200 a barrel

if the war lasts into June.

Such an increase would wallop the global economy and corporate profits.

The latest:

S&P 500 futures are down on Friday after President Trump on Thursday gave Iran more time, until April 6, to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has insisted talks with Tehran are “

going very well

,” but there was little sign of a breakthrough.

Brent was trading above $110 a barrel. It has soared roughly 50 percent since the war began.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a rate that underpins mortgages and other loans, has risen to 4.46 percent.

Image

Higher fuel prices and borrowing costs are clouding the economic outlook.

Mortgage rates in the U.S. have

steadily risen since the war began

. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its inflation forecast on Thursday and now expects it to

average 4.2 percent this year

.

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