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What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s April Meeting

when it was still so unclear how long the war would last and, in turn, how long energy prices... how it is thinking through scenarios related to an prolonged conflict. Rate Increases on the...

NYTIMES 입력 2026.04.29 18:04 0

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s April Meeting

War in the

Middle East

U.S.-Iran Talks

Israel-Lebanon Truce

Strait of Hormuz

Generals Running Iran

Timeline of War

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What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s April Meeting

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at what is scheduled to be Jerome H. Powell’s final meeting as chair.

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Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair.

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Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

Colby Smith

Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve.

April 29, 2026,

5:03 a.m. ET

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The Federal Reserve is preparing to

hold interest rates steady

on Wednesday for its third straight meeting this year — and likely the final one for Jerome H. Powell as chair.

Since policymakers last gathered in March, the war in Iran has continued to

drag on

, compounding the potential economic damage. Inflation has already

risen sharply

, reflecting an ongoing surge in energy prices. The labor market has

stabilized somewhat

, but Americans are feeling increasingly downbeat about the outlook for growth.

The combination of higher inflation and slower growth is particularly challenging for the Fed, and has prompted policymakers to endorse holding interest rates steady in a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent for an extended period.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release a new policy statement alongside its rate decision at 2 p.m. in Washington. Mr. Powell, whose term ends May 15, will hold what is likely to be his final news conference as chair at 2:30 p.m. Pressure is now on the Senate to confirm President Trump’s pick to replace him, Kevin M. Warsh, in time. Mr. Warsh is expected to take the first step toward winning confirmation on Wednesday, just hours ahead of the Fed meeting.

Here is what to watch for:

Impact of the War

When officials last gathered in March, the United States was less than three weeks into its war with Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for global energy markets, had begun to gum up supply chains and lift energy prices, but the full extent of the economic impact was impossible to know.

Mr. Powell, at the time,

leaned into the uncertainty

of the moment, saying repeatedly that officials had “no conviction” in their forecasts when it was still so unclear how long the war would last and, in turn, how long energy prices would stay elevated.

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