The Peace Rally Gets Derailed

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The Peace Rally Gets Derailed

Oil prices are climbing and global stocks are falling as investors worry about the prospects for a speedy end to the war in the Middle East.

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By

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Bernhard Warner

Sarah Kessler

Michael J. de la Merced

Niko Gallogly

and

Brian O’Keefe

April 20, 2026,

8:00 a.m. ET

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Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have again put hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East in doubt.

Credit...

U.S. Navy via Getty Images

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Andrew here.

Virtually every morning we have more news about how the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become more complicated, not less (which is also the case on Monday). And yet, the stock market frequently continues to grind higher. We go behind the scenes.

We’re also looking at the standoff between the Pentagon and Anthropic — and how that increasingly seems like a transparent politically motivated fight. The latest evidence: a meeting between Anthropic and the Trump administration, and the N.S.A. reportedly using Anthropic tools despite the artificial intelligence company being designated a “supply chain risk.”

Image

Shots fired

Oil prices are climbing and global stock markets are wobbling on Monday as U.S.-Iran talks appear to have hit a major snag.

President Trump said the U.S. team would arrive in Pakistan on Monday for another round of negotiations, but an Iranian official said there were “no plans” for negotiations. Tensions are high again over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran

vowing to retaliate

after the U.S. attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend.

The strait, a vital waterway for global oil and natural gas exports, remains largely shut on Monday, monitoring groups say, as a tenuous cease-fire agreement is set to expire this week. The latest turbulence suggests that investors may have been too optimistic last week in betting on a rapid end to the war.

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