Nam Se-gyu
The author is former head of the Agency for Defense Development.
Iran is carrying out wide-ranging retaliatory strikes in response to the Middle East conflict initiated by the United States and Israel. Fierce missile exchanges are unfolding over major cities in the region. In the United Arab Emirates, which is experiencing such large-scale missile warfare for the first time, interception rates have exceeded 90 percent. Korea’s Cheongung-II missile defense system is reported to have achieved a 96 percent interception rate.
Israelis take cover in a bomb shelter in Jerusalem, after air raid sirens alerted of incoming missiles from Iran on March 19. [UPI/YONHAP]
During last June’s conflict, Iran launched more than 550 ballistic missiles at Israel from over 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away. Around 60 missiles penetrated Israel’s missile defense systems, including the Iron Dome, resulting in about 30 deaths. Israel assessed that while interception rates during the saturation attack stood at 86 percent, protection rates after civilian evacuation exceeded 95 percent. The combination of interception and evacuation reduced the overall fatality rate from Iranian missile attacks to below 1 percent.
Notably, none of the casualties occurred among those who properly evacuated to shelters. In Tel Aviv, 10 ballistic missiles struck the city without causing fatalities among those who had taken refuge. This offers an important lesson, alongside the high interception performance demonstrated by Cheongung-II in the UAE.
Thai workers gather near a bomb shelter the morning after a Thai worker was killed from shrapnel in an Iranian missile attack, amid the U.S. and Israel conflict with Iran, at a potato farm in Adanim, Israel, on March 19. [REUTERS/YONHAP]
The key to survival for Tel Aviv residents lies not only in systems like the Iron Dome but also in Mamad, or Israel’s in-home bomb shelters. Following the 1991 Gulf War, Israel mandated the installation of Mamad units in all new buildings. When an alert sounds, residents move immediately into these reinforced rooms, which are used as bedrooms or studies in daily life. Once sealed with blast-resistant doors, they function as survival bunkers. While the official evacuation time in Tel Aviv is 90 seconds, the presence of a Mamad allows residents to take shelter within 15 seconds.
In contrast, Seoul, a metropolitan area with nearly 10 million residents, faces a different reality under the ongoing inter-Korean military standoff. In February, North Korea unveiled 50 units of a 600-mm multiple-rocket launcher system. Each launcher can fire five rockets simultaneously, allowing up to 250 rounds in a single salvo. North Korea claims these systems are suited for tactical nuclear payloads. It has also pledged to deploy 250 launchers for tactical ballistic missiles, each capable of firing four missiles at once, enabling simultaneous launches of up to 1,000 missiles. Concerns over mixed nuclear and conventional saturation attacks have intensified.
If North Korea launches tactical ballistic missiles from bases in Hwanghae Province, missiles traveling roughly 130 kilometers could reach Seoul in just over 200 seconds, even accounting for evasive maneuvers. If fired in a low-altitude trajectory to evade radar detection, flight time could be reduced to under 140 seconds. After accounting for detection and warning time, Seoul residents may have only about 100 seconds to evacuate. In such circumstances, descending from high-rise apartments to underground shelters would be extremely difficult, especially during nighttime surprise attacks.
When sirens sound, residents leaving their homes may find elevators stopping at every floor, while stairwells become congested. Reaching a shared shelter outside the building in time is unlikely. If immediate evacuation to external shelters is impractical, installing shelters within homes becomes necessary. As North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats grow, improving nuclear protection capabilities alongside the Korea Air and Missile Defense system is increasingly urgent.
Drawing from Israel’s Mamad, Korea should explore its own solution. Although nuclear weapons are considered ultimate weapons, their destructive effects diminish rapidly with distance and shielding. Properly designed shelters can block blast waves, the most lethal effect, as well as heat and initial radiation. Outside the immediate blast zone, survival rates can increase significantly with adequate protection.
North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported on March 15 that a precision multiple rocket launcher strike drill was conducted the previous day under the observation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY/YONHAP]
A proposed Korean-style K-Mamad would use reinforced-concrete load-bearing walls and blast doors, layered with tungsten sheets for gamma-ray shielding and boron sheets for neutron absorption, and strengthened with carbon fiber. Lightweight composite construction methods would make such shelters suitable for apartment buildings. Chemical, biological and radiological filters would also be essential.
It is urgent to mandate the installation of K-Mamad shelters in Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan areas. Prioritizing facilities likely to be nuclear targets would enhance effectiveness. Incentives such as floor-area ratio exemptions and tax reductions should be considered. As shelters that offer immediate protection, K-Mamad units could provide a sense of security as part of broader public safety efforts.
Despite decades of denuclearization efforts, Korea now faces the reality of living under a nuclear threat. The country must aim to reduce fatalities to below 1 percent in any nuclear attack by achieving interception and protection rates exceeding 90 percent, redefining its approach to national survival.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
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