Long-term vision, or the Schumpeter dilemma?

Jaung HoonThe author is an emeritus professor at Chung-Ang University and a columnist at the JoongAng Ilbo.Crises ask fundamental questions. What are your strengths and weaknesses? Are you too busy putting out immediate fires to think ahead, or do you retain the capacity to plan for the long term? And when crisis strikes, do you have partners who will stand with you?Tankers sail in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran on March 11. [REUTERS/YONHAP]The war unfolding in Iran, some 6,500 kilometers (4,039 miles) west of the Korean Peninsula, raises difficult questions for Korea. As an energy-importing country heavily dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East, it must consider how to respond to supply disruptions. From a security perspective, issues range from the sudden relocation of Unites States Forces Korea's Thaad battery to requests for naval deployments to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Ethical questions also arise: how to assess Iran’s theocratic regime, which has suppressed civilian protests, and how to respond to U.S. actions targeting that regime’s leadership.The Cheonghae unit's Chungmugong Yi Sun-shin destroyer, right, alongside the Italian frigate Luigi Rizzo, participates in a counter-piracy operation codenamed ″Hanul″ in waters near the Gulf of Aden on May 21, 2023. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]As in past crises, Korea has been swift and effective in its short-term response. Yet there is limited attention to mid-to-long-term strategies that require political deliberation and public consensus. This reflects what might be called the “short-termism dilemma of democratic politics.” Austrian political economist Joseph Schumpeter warned that political forces focused on upcoming elections tend to neglect long-term vision. His observation remains relevant in Korea.The government’s rapid response to the Middle East crisis is evident. International oil prices quickly surpassed $100 per barrel as the conflict escalated, casting a shadow over the domestic economy. At the same time, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faced disruption.On March 6, Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik announced an agreement to import 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates, more than twice Korea’s daily consumption. Just two days later, on March 8, a United Arab Emirates' (UAE) transport aircraft arrived at Daegu Airport to collect more than 30 Cheongung-II surface-to-air missiles that Korea had agreed to supply. The UAE needed the system to defend against Iranian missile threats, while Korea sought to stabilize its oil supply. The exchange reflected a convergence of strategic needs.The government also introduced a temporary price cap on gasoline to stabilize market sentiment. As a result, President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating has risen to 67 percent, maintaining strong public support despite inflationary pressures linked to the crisis.While Korea has focused on the Middle East, notable developments have been unfolding in the Pacific. On March 6, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Japan and announced a comprehensive strategic partnership covering security, energy, AI and critical minerals. Prior to that, he visited Australia, where both countries agreed to strengthen cooperation in maritime security, trade, AI and key resources.These moves are not merely ceremonial. Earlier this year, Carney declared in a widely discussed speech that the post-World War II, U.S.-led international order has effectively come to an end. He argued that the world has entered a period of uncertainty, with the United States increasingly seeking to monetize its relationships with allies through measures such as tariff pressure and demands for investment.Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister SanaeTakaichi in Tokyo on March 6. [AP/YONHAP]The alternative, in his view, is cooperation among like-minded middle powers. Without such cooperation, he warned, middle powers risk becoming subjects shaped by great powers. Canada, a Group of 7 economy rich in resources and closely tied to the United States yet maintaining a complex relationship, is positioning itself at the forefront of this shift.For Korea, these developments raise pressing questions. In a world marked by growing disorder, what vision of the future will it pursue? Will it remain a reactive middle power, relying on industries such as defense, shipbuilding and semiconductors to navigate crises? Or will it emerge as a proactive middle power that helps build stable frameworks for cooperation in an uncertain era?Beyond physical capabilities such as semiconductor production, weapons systems and naval construction, Korea must consider what intangible assets and values it can offer to attract and lead partnerships among middle powers. It must also define a national strategy that integrates both alliance commitments and broader networks of cooperation.These are questions not only for the government but for society as a whole.This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.